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Monday, January 21, 2013

Why I think Apple (AAPL) is going to 600+

So heres the thing, recently since septmeber apple has gotten off tis all time high of 700 and is now back down to 500 points. I think after a blockbuster earnings reprot we could see a correction updward that erased all the downward trends on apple. So if apple where to completley beat estimates, apple will easily recover back to 700 as fears of stiffing competition and weak iphone numbers are put to rest. But be cautious as this is all one big "if". Lets say apple beats estimates midely and gives another conservative guidance for q2 of 2013, i would say apple could easily recover back into the 600 dollar range by early next feburary. best case scenario is of course blow out earnings (posible) and a huge correction back to 700. But once again i feel like a move up to 600 is more likley in the coming month of feburary. Quarter 2 of 2013 is still a mystery, as apple has suppsodley cut manufacturing parts for ipad and iphone. Could it be a new product relase or is competition really stiffining and apple no longer has strong demand for there premium products. Quarter 2 will of course include all of apples new products and will include chinese new year, where kids get money, and may spend it on apple products. Wall street is currently esitmating an eps of 11,  the current eps esitmate for q1 2013 is 13.3 which is below its high of 13.8 eps set last quarter. Once again this is just an estimate, and i believe apple could bring out numbers in the 15-16 range, and show us 50 million iphone sales plus. The apple sotres where packed this holiday and almost everything was sold out. I beleive this conservitive guidance for apple has set the bar too low and apple will easily be able to beat estimates and beat its best quarter set last year. I am long apple and will be holding through the earnings report.

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